Rocket One Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
84.13%
increased by 16.12%
1 Week
87.13%
increased by 19.12%
1 Month
95.81%
increased by 27.80%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 18, 2019 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0309 | 1.10 |
| αARCH | 0.5639 | 3.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3962 | 3.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.8701 | -0.56 |
| γ2 | 2.2762 | 0.40 |
| γ3 | -0.5145 | -0.11 |
| γ4 | 0.8931 | 0.26 |
| γ5 | -0.9315 | -0.41 |
| γ6 | -1.9736 | -0.80 |
| γ7 | 6.4942 | 2.09** |
| γ8 | -9.7630 | -2.59*** |
| γ9 | 10.6961 | 2.39** |
| γ10 | -12.5859 | -2.17** |
0.960
Persistence17d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0309 | 1.10 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5639 | 3.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3962 | 3.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.8701 | -0.56 |
| γ2 | 2.2762 | 0.40 |
| γ3 | -0.5145 | -0.11 |
| γ4 | 0.8931 | 0.26 |
| γ5 | -0.9315 | -0.41 |
| γ6 | -1.9736 | -0.80 |
| γ7 | 6.4942 | 2.09** |
| γ8 | -9.7630 | -2.59*** |
| γ9 | 10.6961 | 2.39** |
| γ10 | -12.5859 | -2.17** |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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