V-Lab
Hallmark Financial Services Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
4,677.61%
increased by 4,256.18%
1 Week
4,369.50%
increased by 3,948.07%
1 Month
3,449.37%
increased by 3,027.94%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6988 | 4.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1928 | 9.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7370 | 29.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.1048 | -1.05 |
| γ2 | 0.1596 | 0.98 |
| γ3 | -0.2930 | -2.30** |
| γ4 | 0.4700 | 4.95*** |
| γ5 | -0.3143 | -4.15*** |
| γ6 | 0.1087 | 1.52 |
| γ7 | 0.0238 | 0.30 |
| γ8 | 0.0029 | 0.02 |
| γ9 | 0.0762 | 0.28 |
Persistence:
0.930
Half-life:
10 days
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