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V-Lab

Hallmark Financial Services Inc Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, June 12th, 2026

1 Day

1,888.53%

decreased by 68.63%

1 Week

1,888.53%

decreased by 68.63%

1 Month

1,888.56%

decreased by 68.60%

Analysis last updated: Friday, June 12, 2026 at 11:43 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hallmark Financial Services Inc AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 12, 1992 to May 9, 2025

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0435
3.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0443
4.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9307
149.56***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0500
0.85

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-