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ExxonMobil Holdings Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

22.69%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Week

22.72%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Month

22.86%

decreased by 0.60%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:08 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ExxonMobil Holdings Corp S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~73 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0141
8.86***
αARCH0.0664
9.71***
βGARCH0.9241
128.32***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0000
0.19

0.991

Persistence

73d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0141
8.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0664
9.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9241
128.32***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0000
0.19

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

73 days