V-Lab
ExxonMobil Holdings Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
22.69%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
22.72%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Month
22.86%
decreased by 0.60%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:08 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~73 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0141 | 8.86*** |
| αARCH | 0.0664 | 9.71*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9241 | 128.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0000 | 0.19 |
0.991
Persistence73d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0141 | 8.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0664 | 9.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9241 | 128.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0000 | 0.19 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
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