ExxonMobil Holdings Corp MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
19.51%
decreased by 1.48%
1 Week
19.73%
decreased by 1.26%
1 Month
20.51%
decreased by 0.48%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 12, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 34 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 34 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 34-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0490 | 2.50** |
| αARCH | 0.1913 | 12.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7883 | 71.48*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0490 | 2.50** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1913 | 12.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7883 | 71.48*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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