V-Lab
Caterpillar Inc MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
31.17%
increased by 3.94%
1 Week
31.23%
increased by 4.00%
1 Month
31.45%
increased by 4.22%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 26-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1099 | 2.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.1627 | 11.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8110 | 83.66*** |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1099 | 2.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1627 | 11.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8110 | 83.66*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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