V-Lab
Caterpillar Inc GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
33.67%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
33.63%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Month
33.48%
decreased by 0.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0508 | 4.29*** |
| αARCH | 0.0368 | 7.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9507 | 139.64*** |
0.987
Persistence55d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0508 | 4.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0368 | 7.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9507 | 139.64*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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