V-Lab
HP Inc GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
46.44%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
46.29%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Month
45.76%
decreased by 1.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~71 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0569 | 3.05*** |
| αARCH | 0.0291 | 4.50*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9611 | 110.15*** |
0.990
Persistence71d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0569 | 3.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0291 | 4.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9611 | 110.15*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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