V-Lab
HP Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
45.91%
1 Week
45.78%
1 Month
45.28%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0207 | 3.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9629 | 122.12*** |
| γleverage | 0.0140 | 1.66* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 5.7752 | 0.01 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.991
Persistence73d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0207 | 3.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9629 | 122.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0140 | 1.66* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.7752 | 0.01 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
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