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V-Lab
V-Lab

HP Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

45.91%

increased by 0.14%

1 Week

45.78%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

45.28%

decreased by 0.49%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of HP Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~73 days
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow126
αARCH0.0207
3.04***
βGARCH0.9629
122.12***
γleverage0.0140
1.66*
λ₁tau intercept5.7752
0.01
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.991

Persistence

73d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0207
3.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9629
122.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0140
1.66*
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

5.7752
0.01
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

73 days