Merck & Co Inc GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
28.44%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
28.34%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Month
27.97%
decreased by 1.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:25 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 30-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0621 | 2.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.0425 | 6.35*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9344 | 89.84*** |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0621 | 2.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0425 | 6.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9344 | 89.84*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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