V-Lab
Merck & Co Inc GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
26.57%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
26.54%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Month
26.46%
decreased by 0.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:48 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 29 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 29 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 29-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0635 | 2.97*** |
| αARCH | 0.0431 | 6.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9333 | 88.05*** |
0.976
Persistence29d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0635 | 2.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0431 | 6.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9333 | 88.05*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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