Applied Materials Inc MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
42.46%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
42.63%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Month
43.27%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 11:38 PM UTC
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How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 102 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~102 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0771 | 1.44 |
| αARCH | 0.1394 | 12.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8539 | 104.86*** |
0.993
Persistence102d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0771 | 1.44 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1394 | 12.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8539 | 104.86*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
102 days
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