V-Lab
MindForge Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
209.12%
decreased by 68.72%
1 Week
208.12%
decreased by 69.72%
1 Month
207.71%
decreased by 70.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7837 | 1.85* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1868 | 3.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2547 | 1.74* |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 71.3421 | 1.69* |
| γ2 | -143.9946 | -2.34** |
| γ3 | 108.5559 | 3.43*** |
| γ4 | -39.6254 | -1.99** |
| γ5 | -10.8361 | -0.49 |
| γ6 | 55.4801 | 2.02** |
| γ7 | -106.8857 | -3.47*** |
| γ8 | 141.1061 | 3.49*** |
| γ9 | -103.6300 | -2.13** |
| γ10 | 21.9659 | 0.68 |
Persistence:
0.442
Half-life:
1 days
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