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V-Lab

MindForge Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

208.03%

decreased by 23.42%

1 Week

208.76%

decreased by 22.69%

1 Month

209.03%

decreased by 22.42%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of MindForge Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 29, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7122
1.75*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1537
2.52**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2402
1.28
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ153.8481
1.38
γ2-117.4718
-2.03**
γ3103.1879
3.22***
γ4-58.3148
-2.97***
γ529.5026
1.52
γ6-1.4142
-0.06
γ7-52.9060
-2.83***
γ8126.0286
6.21***
γ9-144.8015
-4.76***
γ1075.0550
2.84***

Persistence:

0.394

Half-life:

1 days