V-Lab
MindForge Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
208.03%
decreased by 23.42%
1 Week
208.76%
decreased by 22.69%
1 Month
209.03%
decreased by 22.42%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7122 | 1.75* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1537 | 2.52** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2402 | 1.28 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 53.8481 | 1.38 |
| γ2 | -117.4718 | -2.03** |
| γ3 | 103.1879 | 3.22*** |
| γ4 | -58.3148 | -2.97*** |
| γ5 | 29.5026 | 1.52 |
| γ6 | -1.4142 | -0.06 |
| γ7 | -52.9060 | -2.83*** |
| γ8 | 126.0286 | 6.21*** |
| γ9 | -144.8015 | -4.76*** |
| γ10 | 75.0550 | 2.84*** |
Persistence:
0.394
Half-life:
1 days
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