V-Lab
Uni-Fuels Holdings Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
79.07%
1 Week
90.12%
1 Month
94.52%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 14, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 235% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 121 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.7128 | 34.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -16.21*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 1.98** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7259 | 7.65*** |
Persistence:
0.463
Half-life:
1 days
Other Uni-Fuels Holdings Ltd Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equities