V-Lab
Uni-Fuels Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
126.35%
increased by 30.84%
1 Week
132.45%
increased by 36.94%
1 Month
137.21%
increased by 41.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 14, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 76.6657 | 3.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2323 | 5.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6755 | 8.40*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7296 | 6.30*** |
Persistence:
0.676
Half-life:
2 days
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