V-Lab
Uni-Fuels Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
80.71%
increased by 18.46%
1 Week
85.80%
increased by 23.55%
1 Month
89.23%
increased by 26.98%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 14, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9123 | 3.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4645 | 3.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1701 | 0.87 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 60.3261 | 1.13 |
| γ2 | -32.6790 | -0.44 |
| γ3 | -124.0067 | -1.55 |
| γ4 | 224.6350 | 2.20** |
| γ5 | -245.9365 | -2.68*** |
| γ6 | 198.3105 | 2.52** |
| γ7 | -178.1750 | -2.48** |
| γ8 | 198.1881 | 1.88* |
| γ9 | -155.4613 | -1.57 |
| γ10 | 71.0827 | 1.10 |
Persistence:
0.635
Half-life:
2 days
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