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V-Lab

AI Financial Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

132.62%

decreased by 17.02%

1 Week

133.48%

decreased by 16.16%

1 Month

135.72%

decreased by 13.92%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of AI Financial Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 7, 1991 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 36% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2487
18.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6930
73.42***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0661
-4.29***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0945
2.37**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0062
4.54***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9925
490.60***

Persistence:

0.909

Half-life:

7 days