AI Financial Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
83.30%
1 Week
95.36%
1 Month
118.51%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 7, 1991 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 36% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2488 | 18.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6929 | 73.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0659 | -4.25*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0942 | 2.37** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0062 | 4.55*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9925 | 491.33*** |
Persistence:
0.909
Half-life:
7 days
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