V-Lab
AI Financial Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
132.62%
1 Week
133.48%
1 Month
135.72%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 7, 1991 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 36% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2487 | 18.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6930 | 73.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0661 | -4.29*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0945 | 2.37** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0062 | 4.54*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9925 | 490.60*** |
Persistence:
0.909
Half-life:
7 days
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