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V-Lab

AI Financial Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

108.42%

increased by 6.60%

1 Week

114.34%

increased by 12.52%

1 Month

126.97%

increased by 25.15%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of AI Financial Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 7, 1991 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 36% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2488
18.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6932
73.40***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0662
-4.28***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0944
2.37**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0062
4.55***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9925
491.33***

Persistence:

0.909

Half-life:

7 days