V-Lab
AI Financial Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
129.40%
decreased by 15.48%
1 Week
133.63%
decreased by 11.25%
1 Month
140.56%
decreased by 4.32%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 7, 1991 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5553 | 5.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2238 | 7.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6292 | 15.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0318 | 0.63 |
| γ2 | -0.0929 | -1.25 |
| γ3 | 0.0702 | 1.70* |
| γ4 | -0.0577 | -1.33 |
| γ5 | 0.1587 | 2.52** |
| γ6 | -0.1847 | -2.86*** |
| γ7 | 0.1122 | 2.05** |
| γ8 | -0.0568 | -1.60 |
Persistence:
0.853
Half-life:
4 days
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