Skip to main content
V-Lab

AI Financial Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

120.46%

increased by 7.39%

1 Week

126.97%

increased by 13.90%

1 Month

137.48%

increased by 24.41%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AI Financial Corp S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 7, 1991 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5572
5.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2232
7.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6318
15.25***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0324
0.63
γ2-0.0939
-1.25
γ30.0718
1.74*
γ4-0.0616
-1.39
γ50.1632
2.55**
γ6-0.1867
-2.88***
γ70.1120
2.03**
γ8-0.0564
-1.56

Persistence:

0.855

Half-life:

4 days