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V-Lab

AI Financial Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

129.40%

decreased by 15.48%

1 Week

133.63%

decreased by 11.25%

1 Month

140.56%

decreased by 4.32%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AI Financial Corp S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 7, 1991 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5553
5.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2238
7.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6292
15.07***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0318
0.63
γ2-0.0929
-1.25
γ30.0702
1.70*
γ4-0.0577
-1.33
γ50.1587
2.52**
γ6-0.1847
-2.86***
γ70.1122
2.05**
γ8-0.0568
-1.60

Persistence:

0.853

Half-life:

4 days