Big Digital Energy Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
110.42%
increased by 3.86%
1 Week
125.08%
increased by 18.52%
1 Month
155.29%
increased by 48.73%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:10 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 22, 2012 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.2205 | 3.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4391 | 6.57*** |
| γleverage | -0.0411 | -0.52 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 1.75* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.4274 | 2.08** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.5356 | 2.79*** |
0.639
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2205 | 3.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4391 | 6.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0411 | -0.52 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 1.75* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4274 | 2.08** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5356 | 2.79*** |
Persistence:
0.639
Half-life:
2 days
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