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V-Lab

Everforth Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

85.44%

increased by 2.80%

1 Week

85.10%

increased by 2.46%

1 Month

83.82%

increased by 1.18%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Everforth Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 22, 1992 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 382% more than positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0149
8.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9491
330.93***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0569
15.67***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.2791
0.00

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

91 days