Everforth Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
85.44%
1 Week
85.10%
1 Month
83.82%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 22, 1992 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 382% more than positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0149 | 8.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9491 | 330.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0569 | 15.67*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2791 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
91 days
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