V-Lab
Valion Bio Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
141.91%
1 Week
180.42%
1 Month
198.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 11, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 127% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.7259 | 11.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0340 | 2.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4066 | -4.20*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.28 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2851 | 0.33 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6899 | 0.67 |
Persistence:
0.557
Half-life:
1 days
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