V-Lab
Valion Bio Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
151.02%
decreased by 1.80%
1 Week
179.36%
increased by 26.54%
1 Month
193.08%
increased by 40.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 11, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9950 | 3.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3843 | 2.54** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1649 | 1.84* |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 6.8515 | 1.88* |
| γ2 | -9.1735 | -1.73* |
| γ3 | 6.4809 | 1.45 |
| γ4 | -12.2243 | -2.26** |
| γ5 | 13.0169 | 2.22** |
| γ6 | -1.3590 | -0.24 |
| γ7 | -15.4467 | -2.46** |
| γ8 | 24.0868 | 3.94*** |
| γ9 | -16.6397 | -4.70*** |
Persistence:
0.549
Half-life:
1 days
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