V-Lab
MBIA Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
50.01%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
51.96%
increased by 1.09%
1 Month
58.24%
increased by 7.37%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1209 | 4.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0724 | 6.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9063 | 69.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0511 | 1.59 |
| γ2 | -0.0154 | -0.32 |
| γ3 | -0.1001 | -2.95*** |
| γ4 | 0.1780 | 5.06*** |
| γ5 | -0.2354 | -5.73*** |
| γ6 | 0.1783 | 4.06*** |
| γ7 | -0.0499 | -1.32 |
| γ8 | -0.0242 | -0.89 |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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