V-Lab
SPI Energy Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
3,998.90%
increased by 524.19%
1 Week
3,973.83%
increased by 499.12%
1 Month
3,877.22%
increased by 402.51%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 10:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2016 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2882 | 1.66* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0964 | 2.53** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8956 | 21.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 8.1264 | 2.35** |
| γ2 | -13.7164 | -2.41** |
| γ3 | 7.8725 | 1.95* |
| γ4 | 0.1791 | 0.04 |
| γ5 | -7.5663 | -1.16 |
| γ6 | 8.7151 | 1.57 |
| γ7 | -5.2177 | -1.58 |
| γ8 | 3.5351 | 1.32 |
| γ9 | -1.6512 | -0.63 |
| γ10 | -1.7431 | -1.04 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
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