V-Lab
SPI Energy Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
6,169.68%
increased by 3,447.31%
1 Week
6,241.53%
increased by 3,519.16%
1 Month
9,064.79%
increased by 6,342.42%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 10:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2016 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 111 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1095 | 2.14** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5232 | 9.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 7.86*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.49 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1257 | 0.78 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8743 | 4.13*** |
Persistence:
0.883
Half-life:
6 days
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