V-Lab
SPI Energy Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
2,886.09%
1 Week
2,886.19%
1 Month
2,886.56%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 10:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2016 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0846 | 2.34** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0024 | 2.23** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9684 | 225.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0584 | 5.96*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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