V-Lab
SPI Energy Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
1,109.70%
increased by 299.29%
1 Week
1,104.08%
increased by 293.67%
1 Month
1,084.43%
increased by 274.02%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 10:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2016 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.03 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3,758.6570 | 3.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1721 | 69.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9776 | 165.87*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0310 | 1,378.84*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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