V-Lab
AGNT Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
72.10%
decreased by 10.17%
1 Week
64.17%
decreased by 18.10%
1 Month
56.74%
decreased by 25.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 2014 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.2054 | 4.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1778 | 5.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5032 | 5.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0889 | -0.22 |
| γ2 | 0.7959 | 1.33 |
| γ3 | -1.1105 | -2.83*** |
| γ4 | 1.0060 | 3.16*** |
| γ5 | -1.2732 | -4.30*** |
| γ6 | 0.9065 | 3.01*** |
| γ7 | -0.2434 | -0.96 |
| γ8 | 0.0477 | 0.27 |
Persistence:
0.681
Half-life:
2 days
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