V-Lab
AGNT Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
56.24%
decreased by 9.64%
1 Week
55.31%
decreased by 10.57%
1 Month
54.51%
decreased by 11.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.2264 | 4.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1770 | 5.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5067 | 5.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0680 | -0.17 |
| γ2 | 0.7531 | 1.28 |
| γ3 | -1.0640 | -2.76*** |
| γ4 | 0.9518 | 3.02*** |
| γ5 | -1.2271 | -4.19*** |
| γ6 | 0.8868 | 2.95*** |
| γ7 | -0.2301 | -0.91 |
| γ8 | 0.0284 | 0.17 |
Persistence:
0.684
Half-life:
2 days
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