V-Lab
OceanaGold Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
56.82%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
56.83%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
56.85%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 7, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0208 | 2.20** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9309 | 4.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.7354 | -0.10 |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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