OceanaGold Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
54.17%
increased by 1.74%
1 Week
54.42%
increased by 1.99%
1 Month
55.04%
increased by 2.61%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 7, 2026 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0195 | 2.17** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0280 | 0.58 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8933 | 3.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.5503 | -0.05 |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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