V-Lab
Upstart Holdings Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
66.59%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
67.29%
increased by 0.55%
1 Month
67.84%
increased by 1.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2020 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2398 | 6.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0261 | 1.39 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6440 | 2.31** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -5.0368 | -1.53 |
| γ2 | 11.8150 | 2.09** |
| γ3 | -14.0187 | -2.96*** |
| γ4 | 13.2799 | 3.12*** |
| γ5 | -10.4428 | -3.05*** |
| γ6 | 6.6812 | 1.93* |
| γ7 | -2.0708 | -0.52 |
| γ8 | -2.1530 | -0.61 |
| γ9 | 3.3814 | 1.21 |
| γ10 | -1.4955 | -0.86 |
Persistence:
0.670
Half-life:
2 days
Other Upstart Holdings Inc Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities