Upstart Holdings Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
69.80%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Week
70.54%
increased by 0.25%
1 Month
71.11%
increased by 0.82%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2210 | 6.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0248 | 1.32 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6413 | 2.21** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -5.3954 | -1.60 |
| γ2 | 12.4637 | 2.16** |
| γ3 | -14.5136 | -3.02*** |
| γ4 | 13.5297 | 3.16*** |
| γ5 | -10.3265 | -2.99*** |
| γ6 | 6.1402 | 1.74* |
| γ7 | -1.1849 | -0.29 |
| γ8 | -3.1039 | -0.86 |
| γ9 | 4.1461 | 1.40 |
| γ10 | -1.9484 | -1.04 |
Persistence:
0.666
Half-life:
2 days
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