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V-Lab

Upstart Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

73.53%

decreased by 0.68%

1 Week

76.21%

increased by 2.00%

1 Month

84.22%

increased by 10.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Upstart Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 16, 2020 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.37 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

45.4050
3.40***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0723
12.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9656
81.08***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.3657
3.62***

Persistence:

0.966

Half-life:

20 days