V-Lab
Upstart Holdings Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
80.93%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
87.38%
increased by 6.02%
1 Month
101.52%
increased by 20.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2020 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 68% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.3738 | 11.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1480 | 7.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8033 | 65.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0597 | -2.98*** |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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