Skip to main content
V-Lab

Upstart Holdings Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

80.93%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Week

87.38%

increased by 6.02%

1 Month

101.52%

increased by 20.16%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Upstart Holdings Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 16, 2020 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 68% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.3738
11.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1480
7.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8033
65.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0597
-2.98***

Persistence:

0.921

Half-life:

8 days