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V-Lab

Upstart Holdings Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

70.95%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Week

71.43%

increased by 0.09%

1 Month

72.47%

increased by 1.13%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Upstart Holdings Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 16, 2020 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0049
0.78
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6266
6.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0484
0.42
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

3.6413
0.07
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.4386
0.12
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.4828
0.08

Persistence:

0.656

Half-life:

2 days