Mount Logan Capital Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
47.46%
increased by 9.19%
1 Week
51.95%
increased by 13.68%
1 Month
66.99%
increased by 28.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~99021 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2968 | 0.01 |
| αARCH | 0.3843 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.6157 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -7.9474 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -20.7608 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 37.0128 | 0.01 |
1.000
Persistence99021d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2968 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3843 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6157 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -7.9474 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -20.7608 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 37.0128 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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