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Mount Logan Capital Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

47.46%

increased by 9.19%

1 Week

51.95%

increased by 13.68%

1 Month

66.99%

increased by 28.72%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Mount Logan Capital Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~99021 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2968
0.01
αARCH0.3843
0.00
βGARCH0.6157
0.00
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-7.9474
0.00
γ2-20.7608
0.00
γ337.0128
0.01

1.000

Persistence

99021d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2968
0.01
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3843
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6157
0.00
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-7.9474
0.00
γ2-20.7608
0.00
γ337.0128
0.01

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

99021 days