V-Lab
Mount Logan Capital Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
77.05%
decreased by 3.32%
1 Week
89.53%
increased by 9.16%
1 Month
99.48%
increased by 19.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5762 | 1.60 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2773 | 1.78* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4275 | 2.00** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 125.9266 | 1.08 |
| γ2 | -289.9495 | -1.72* |
| γ3 | 372.6122 | 3.76*** |
| γ4 | -377.4898 | -4.86*** |
| γ5 | 250.9581 | 3.56*** |
| γ6 | -107.5120 | -2.13** |
Persistence:
0.705
Half-life:
2 days
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