V-Lab
Mount Logan Capital Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
27.19%
decreased by 2.85%
1 Week
30.54%
increased by 0.50%
1 Month
32.47%
increased by 2.43%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5744 | 1.83* |
| αARCH | 0.2967 | 2.27** |
| βGARCH | 0.2985 | 1.61 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 185.2105 | 1.57 |
| γ2 | -417.1199 | -2.52** |
| γ3 | 502.8175 | 6.01*** |
| γ4 | -475.2553 | -6.85*** |
| γ5 | 304.3014 | 3.59*** |
| γ6 | -158.8970 | -1.71* |
| γ7 | 45.4454 | 0.70 |
| γ8 | 47.4911 | 1.06 |
0.595
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5744 | 1.83* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2967 | 2.27** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2985 | 1.61 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 185.2105 | 1.57 |
| γ2 | -417.1199 | -2.52** |
| γ3 | 502.8175 | 6.01*** |
| γ4 | -475.2553 | -6.85*** |
| γ5 | 304.3014 | 3.59*** |
| γ6 | -158.8970 | -1.71* |
| γ7 | 45.4454 | 0.70 |
| γ8 | 47.4911 | 1.06 |
Persistence:
0.595
Half-life:
1 days
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