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V-Lab

Mount Logan Capital Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

27.19%

decreased by 2.85%

1 Week

30.54%

increased by 0.50%

1 Month

32.47%

increased by 2.43%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Mount Logan Capital Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5744
1.83*
αARCH0.2967
2.27**
βGARCH0.2985
1.61
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1185.2105
1.57
γ2-417.1199
-2.52**
γ3502.8175
6.01***
γ4-475.2553
-6.85***
γ5304.3014
3.59***
γ6-158.8970
-1.71*
γ745.4454
0.70
γ847.4911
1.06

0.595

Persistence

1d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5744
1.83*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2967
2.27**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2985
1.61
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1185.2105
1.57
γ2-417.1199
-2.52**
γ3502.8175
6.01***
γ4-475.2553
-6.85***
γ5304.3014
3.59***
γ6-158.8970
-1.71*
γ745.4454
0.70
γ847.4911
1.06

Persistence:

0.595

Half-life:

1 days