V-Lab
Mount Logan Capital Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
74.27%
decreased by 2.73%
1 Week
84.52%
increased by 7.52%
1 Month
116.00%
increased by 39.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 148 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3614 | 1.98** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3409 | 4.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6545 | 8.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -3.0099 | -2.37** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
148 days
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