V-Lab
Mount Logan Capital Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
28.55%
1 Week
32.62%
1 Month
45.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4941 | 2.03** |
| αARCH | 0.2363 | 1.34 |
| βGARCH | 0.7435 | 9.53*** |
| γleverage | 0.0404 | 0.15 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4941 | 2.03** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2363 | 1.34 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7435 | 9.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0404 | 0.15 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
Other Mount Logan Capital Inc Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Equities