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V-Lab
V-Lab

Mount Logan Capital Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

28.55%

decreased by 1.33%

1 Week

32.62%

increased by 2.74%

1 Month

45.39%

increased by 15.51%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Mount Logan Capital Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.4941
2.03**
αARCH0.2363
1.34
βGARCH0.7435
9.53***
γleverage0.0404
0.15

1.000

Persistence

1386294d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4941
2.03**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2363
1.34
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7435
9.53***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0404
0.15

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days