V-Lab
Alphabet Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
33.81%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Week
33.73%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Month
33.48%
decreased by 1.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 19, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 296% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0195 | 7.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9131 | 111.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0578 | 13.33*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0050 | 1.01 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0029 | 1.32 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9957 | 275.82*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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