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V-Lab

Alphabet Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

41.03%

decreased by 1.13%

1 Week

40.50%

decreased by 1.66%

1 Month

38.80%

decreased by 3.36%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Alphabet Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 19, 2004 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 302% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0192
7.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9143
113.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0578
13.47***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0050
1.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0029
1.31
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9958
277.14***

Persistence:

0.962

Half-life:

18 days