V-Lab
Alphabet Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
41.03%
decreased by 1.13%
1 Week
40.50%
decreased by 1.66%
1 Month
38.80%
decreased by 3.36%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 19, 2004 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 302% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0192 | 7.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9143 | 113.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0578 | 13.47*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0050 | 1.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0029 | 1.31 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9958 | 277.14*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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