V-Lab
Alphabet Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
45.11%
decreased by 1.53%
1 Week
44.36%
decreased by 2.28%
1 Month
41.82%
decreased by 4.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 19, 2004 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 301% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0190 | 7.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9149 | 113.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0572 | 13.36*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0050 | 1.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0028 | 1.30 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9958 | 275.76*** |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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