V-Lab
McDonald's Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
23.87%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
23.89%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Month
23.99%
decreased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 174% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0213 | 9.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0274 | 17.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9404 | 566.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0477 | 9.21*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
83 days
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