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V-Lab

McDonald's Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

25.34%

decreased by 0.67%

1 Week

25.34%

decreased by 0.67%

1 Month

25.33%

decreased by 0.68%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:47 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of McDonald's Corp GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 174% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~83 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 174% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0210
2.44**
αARCH0.0270
4.32***
βGARCH0.9412
144.01***
γleverage0.0469
2.30**

0.992

Persistence

83d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0210
2.44**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0270
4.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9412
144.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0469
2.30**

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

83 days