McDonald's Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026
1 Day
22.49%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
22.54%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Month
22.72%
decreased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 173% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~83 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 173% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0210 | 2.44** |
| αARCH | 0.0270 | 4.32*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9413 | 144.06*** |
| γleverage | 0.0468 | 2.29** |
0.992
Persistence83d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0210 | 2.44** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0270 | 4.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9413 | 144.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0468 | 2.29** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
83 days
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