Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
24.95%
increased by 0.09%
1 Week
25.18%
increased by 0.32%
1 Month
26.05%
increased by 1.19%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 225% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 225% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0506 | 4.04*** |
| αARCH | 0.0280 | 3.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9296 | 127.87*** |
| γleverage | 0.0630 | 3.34*** |
0.989
Persistence64d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0506 | 4.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0280 | 3.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9296 | 127.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0630 | 3.34*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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