V-Lab
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
29.03%
decreased by 1.27%
1 Week
29.14%
decreased by 1.16%
1 Month
29.56%
decreased by 0.74%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 1999 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 95 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~95 daysv = 6.29 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.1192 | 1.12 |
| αARCH | 0.0625 | 8.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9927 | 157.55*** |
| νDF | 6.2882 | 1.69* |
0.993
Persistence95d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.1192 | 1.12 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0625 | 8.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9927 | 157.55*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.2882 | 1.69* |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
95 days
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