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Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

29.03%

decreased by 1.27%

1 Week

29.14%

decreased by 1.16%

1 Month

29.56%

decreased by 0.74%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 4, 1999 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 95 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~95 daysv = 6.29 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.1192
1.12
αARCH0.0625
8.59***
βGARCH0.9927
157.55***
νDF6.2882
1.69*

0.993

Persistence

95d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.1192
1.12
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0625
8.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9927
157.55***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.2882
1.69*

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

95 days