V-Lab
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
28.15%
1 Week
28.28%
1 Month
28.76%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 1999 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 95 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.1171 | 1.12 |
| αARCH | 0.0627 | 8.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9927 | 156.55*** |
| νDF | 6.2887 | 1.69* |
0.993
Persistence95d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.1171 | 1.12 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0627 | 8.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9927 | 156.55*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.2887 | 1.69* |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
95 days
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