Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
24.98%
1 Week
25.17%
1 Month
25.88%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 92 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 5.0383 | 1.13 |
| αscore | 0.0628 | 8.49*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9925 | 153.55*** |
| νDF | 6.2941 | 1.67* |
0.993
Persistence92d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 5.0383 | 1.13 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0628 | 8.49*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9925 | 153.55*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.2941 | 1.67* |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
92 days
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