Chemung Financial Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
31.16%
increased by 3.76%
1 Week
31.72%
increased by 4.32%
1 Month
33.51%
increased by 6.11%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 26-day half-lifev = 3.14 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 6.6266 | 1.23 |
| αscore | 0.1176 | 9.47*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9737 | 45.60*** |
| νDF | 3.1387 | 6.41*** |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 6.6266 | 1.23 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1176 | 9.47*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9737 | 45.60*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1387 | 6.41*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
Other Chemung Financial Corp Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equities