V-Lab
Chemung Financial Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
24.27%
decreased by 2.22%
1 Week
25.41%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Month
28.91%
increased by 2.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 1996 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 26-day half-lifev = 3.13 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.6515 | 1.23 |
| αARCH | 0.1181 | 9.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9733 | 44.83*** |
| νDF | 3.1325 | 6.39*** |
0.973
Persistence26d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.6515 | 1.23 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1181 | 9.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9733 | 44.83*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1325 | 6.39*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
26 days
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