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V-Lab

Chemung Financial Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

45.53%

increased by 10.25%

1 Week

45.33%

increased by 10.05%

1 Month

44.63%

increased by 9.35%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chemung Financial Corp GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.7781
4.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1188
37.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9738
181.79***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.1403
25.77***

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days