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V-Lab

Chemung Financial Corp AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

28.17%

decreased by 2.04%

1 Week

28.84%

decreased by 1.37%

1 Month

30.76%

increased by 0.55%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chemung Financial Corp AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2233
19.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1466
33.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8074
150.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0831
-1.37

Persistence:

0.954

Half-life:

15 days