Chemung Financial Corp AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
28.17%
decreased by 2.04%
1 Week
28.84%
decreased by 1.37%
1 Month
30.76%
increased by 0.55%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2233 | 19.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1466 | 33.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8074 | 150.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0831 | -1.37 |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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