V-Lab
Chemung Financial Corp AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
20.13%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
21.86%
increased by 1.13%
1 Month
26.35%
increased by 5.62%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 1996 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2252 | 5.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.1467 | 8.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8069 | 37.66*** |
| γleverage | -0.0617 | -0.26 |
0.954
Persistence15d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2252 | 5.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1467 | 8.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8069 | 37.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0617 | -0.26 |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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