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V-Lab

Chemung Financial Corp APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

28.78%

decreased by 2.11%

1 Week

29.52%

decreased by 1.37%

1 Month

31.75%

increased by 0.86%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Chemung Financial Corp APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days. The volatility power δ = 1.65 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1686
16.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1520
34.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8233
144.32***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0151
-0.75
δ

power

Transformation power

1.6524
29.74***

Persistence:

0.959

Half-life:

17 days