Chemung Financial Corp APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
28.78%
decreased by 2.11%
1 Week
29.52%
decreased by 1.37%
1 Month
31.75%
increased by 0.86%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days. The volatility power δ = 1.65 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1686 | 16.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1520 | 34.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8233 | 144.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0151 | -0.75 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6524 | 29.74*** |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
17 days
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