V-Lab
Chemung Financial Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
56.56%
increased by 28.45%
1 Week
55.14%
increased by 27.03%
1 Month
50.58%
increased by 22.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2120 | 20.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1460 | 16.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8149 | 152.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0069 | -0.44 |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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