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Chemung Financial Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

24.59%

increased by 1.90%

1 Week

25.62%

increased by 2.93%

1 Month

28.52%

increased by 5.83%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chemung Financial Corp GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2098
5.18***
αARCH0.1426
4.16***
βGARCH0.8158
38.65***
γleverage-0.0026
-0.04

0.957

Persistence

16d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2098
5.18***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1426
4.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8158
38.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0026
-0.04

Persistence:

0.957

Half-life:

16 days