Chemung Financial Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
24.59%
increased by 1.90%
1 Week
25.62%
increased by 2.93%
1 Month
28.52%
increased by 5.83%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2098 | 5.18*** |
| αARCH | 0.1426 | 4.16*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8158 | 38.65*** |
| γleverage | -0.0026 | -0.04 |
0.957
Persistence16d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2098 | 5.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1426 | 4.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8158 | 38.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0026 | -0.04 |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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