Chemung Financial Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
26.69%
decreased by 1.14%
1 Week
28.41%
increased by 0.58%
1 Month
33.26%
increased by 5.43%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 1996 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0973 | 7.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1420 | 8.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8214 | 42.31*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0023 | 1.44 |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
19 days
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