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V-Lab

Chemung Financial Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

26.69%

decreased by 1.14%

1 Week

28.41%

increased by 0.58%

1 Month

33.26%

increased by 5.43%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chemung Financial Corp SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 1996 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0973
7.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1420
8.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8214
42.31***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0023
1.44

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

19 days