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V-Lab

Chemung Financial Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

57.19%

increased by 27.26%

1 Week

56.27%

increased by 26.34%

1 Month

53.26%

increased by 23.33%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chemung Financial Corp S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8767
5.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1441
8.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8184
41.36***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0139
-1.68*
γ20.0238
1.98**
γ3-0.0148
-2.11**

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

18 days