Chemung Financial Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
29.69%
decreased by 1.75%
1 Week
30.75%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Month
33.85%
increased by 2.41%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8747 | 5.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1433 | 8.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8187 | 41.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0136 | -1.66* |
| γ2 | 0.0232 | 1.93* |
| γ3 | -0.0142 | -2.03** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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