V-Lab
Chemung Financial Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
57.19%
increased by 27.26%
1 Week
56.27%
increased by 26.34%
1 Month
53.26%
increased by 23.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8767 | 5.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1441 | 8.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8184 | 41.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0139 | -1.68* |
| γ2 | 0.0238 | 1.98** |
| γ3 | -0.0148 | -2.11** |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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