Chemung Financial Corp MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
29.79%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
30.13%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
31.33%
increased by 1.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days.
μ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0922 | 13.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1158 | 30.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8696 | 254.19*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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