Chemung Financial Corp Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
31.62%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
31.87%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Month
32.79%
increased by 0.70%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. The volatility power δ = 2.23 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0940 | 17.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1105 | 32.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8678 | 263.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0009 | -0.08 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.2338 | 45.70*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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