V-Lab
CVS Health Corp Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
26.61%
1 Week
26.07%
1 Month
24.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 36% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.14 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0345 | 5.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.1305 | 15.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8635 | 96.17*** |
| γleverage | 0.1345 | 5.26*** |
| δpower | 1.1367 | 6.68*** |
0.969
Persistence22d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0345 | 5.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1305 | 15.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8635 | 96.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1345 | 5.26*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1367 | 6.68*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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