V-Lab
CVS Health Corp Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
33.92%
1 Week
32.97%
1 Month
29.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 36% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.13 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0342 | 5.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.1298 | 15.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8643 | 96.66*** |
| γleverage | 0.1361 | 5.29*** |
| δpower | 1.1329 | 6.66*** |
0.969
Persistence22d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0342 | 5.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1298 | 15.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8643 | 96.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1361 | 5.29*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1329 | 6.66*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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