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Obsidian Therapeutics Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

88.93%

decreased by 2.27%

1 Week

91.69%

increased by 0.49%

1 Month

100.44%

increased by 9.24%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Obsidian Therapeutics Inc APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 7, 2019 to Oct 16, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. The volatility power δ = 1.66 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 22-day half-lifeδ = 1.66 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0000
1.27
αARCH0.2871
7.72***
βGARCH0.7120
22.36***
γleverage0.0443
1.00
δpower1.6605
3.73***

0.970

Persistence

22d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
1.27
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2871
7.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7120
22.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0443
1.00
δ

power

Transformation power

1.6605
3.73***

Persistence:

0.970

Half-life:

22 days