Obsidian Therapeutics Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
88.93%
1 Week
91.69%
1 Month
100.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 7, 2019 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. The volatility power δ = 1.66 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0000 | 1.27 |
| αARCH | 0.2871 | 7.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7120 | 22.36*** |
| γleverage | 0.0443 | 1.00 |
| δpower | 1.6605 | 3.73*** |
0.970
Persistence22d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.27 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2871 | 7.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7120 | 22.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0443 | 1.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6605 | 3.73*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
22 days
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