V-Lab
Bleichroeder Acquisition Corp II Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
4.67%
1 Week
4.98%
1 Month
5.45%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 129% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.96 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0626 | 2.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3109 | 11.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5874 | 14.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4079 | -9.94*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9587 | 5.48*** |
Persistence:
0.834
Half-life:
4 days
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