V-Lab
Bleichroeder Acquisition Corp II Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
5.53%
1 Week
5.69%
1 Month
5.94%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 116% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.85 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0740 | 2.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3097 | 12.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5892 | 14.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4235 | -9.48*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8540 | 4.95*** |
Persistence:
0.832
Half-life:
4 days
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