V-Lab
Bleichroeder Acquisition Corp II Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
4.56%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
4.57%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
4.64%
increased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 4006 trading days (~15.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6654 | 1.69* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9998 | 9.20*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -597.0485 | -1.42 |
| γ2 | 641.4023 | 1.00 |
| γ3 | 21.1814 | 0.05 |
| γ4 | 112.3822 | 0.42 |
| γ5 | -595.1466 | -2.88*** |
| γ6 | 626.2058 | 2.61*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
4006 days
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