V-Lab
Bleichroeder Acquisition Corp II Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
18.93%
increased by 0.03%
1 Week
18.99%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
19.24%
increased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 218 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2390 | 0.06 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9968 | 0.15 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -693.3413 | -0.03 |
| γ2 | 504.1164 | 0.04 |
| γ3 | 75.9617 | 0.01 |
| γ4 | 614.2240 | 0.24 |
| γ5 | -873.2142 | -0.46 |
| γ6 | 943.8980 | 0.93 |
| γ7 | -1,454.8277 | -1.42 |
| γ8 | 1,163.6840 | 1.62 |
| γ9 | 160.9724 | 0.17 |
| γ10 | -696.1522 | -1.05 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
218 days
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